3 min readA new study published in the journal Royal Society Open Science suggests that Faith Kipyegon could run a sub-4 minute mile, under very specific conditions.
Kipyegon set the women’s mile world record in 2023 at the Monaco Diamond League, running 4:07.64, lopping five seconds off the previous record set by Sifan Hassan in 2019. According to the study’s authors, if the Kenyan middle distance runner—or another elite female athlete who might step up to the plate—were able to offset aerodynamic drag by drafting off of pacesetters, she could feasibly run 3:59.37.
Thanks in large part to advances in shoe technology, the past few years have seen a plethora of seemingly untouchable records broken and unbelievable barriers smashed, and authors Edson Soares da Silva, Wouter Hoogkamer, Shalaya Kipp, and Rodger Kram posit that putting their theory to the test successfully would potentially open the door for more women to break the 4-minute barrier.
In other words, doing it once would remove the mental hurdle from what may seem impossible now. Before Roger Bannister ran the first sub-4 mile in 1954, the feat was thought outright undoable for any human, and before Eliud Kipchoge unofficially ran under two hours for the marathon in 2019, using a rotation of pacers, that too was an inconceivable thing for a human body to do.
The study authors have gamed out the ideal scenario for Kipyegon to run just under one minute per lap to achieve the mythical sub-4 performance: with absolutely no wind, and one pacer 1.3 meters in front and another 1.3 meters behind her for the first 800 meters. For the final two laps, the pacers would be swapped out. The study even got into the weeds about the perfect body dimensions for the pacers to best suit Kipyegon’s stature. They found that tall pacers would likely give her better drafting effectiveness, though a taller pacer with longer legs could make it more difficult to maintain close spacing.
Like Kipchoge’s accomplishment, the performance wouldn’t be world record eligible if the pacers were rotated, but it would still prove the point that women can do it too. It would also be possible to have elite male runners as pacers for the entire effort, but that would also disqualify the attempt from an official record for a women-only race.
An all-female team of pacers would have “a lot of benefits psychologically and sociologically,” Dr. Kram said. “I think it would be really cool to see women alone do it.” However, it would be challenging to put together the right squad, as no other woman has come within four seconds of Kipyegon’s record, and when she ran her 4:07, she covered the bell lap all by her lonesome.
In conclusion, the study authors wrote, “Hopefully, Ms Kipyegon can test our prediction on the track.”
Kipyegon commented in a statement that she found the study “interesting.” She added, “I appreciate people taking my world record performance as an inspiration to imagine what could be possible in the future.”
Abby Carney is a writer and journalist in New York. A former D1 college runner and current amateur track athlete, she's written about culture and characters in running and outdoor sports for Runner's World, Like the Wind Magazine, The New York Times, and other outlets. She also writes about things that have nothing to do with running, and was previously the editor of a food magazine.
