London Marathon Ballot results: 5 conspiracy theories and why they are wrong

Like Christmas celebrations, London Marathon Ballot results day seems to come earlier and earlier every year. Oh wait, no, it really is earlier this year! And, as always, with it comes the annual chorus of disappointment from thousands upon thousands of disappointed runners. Naturally, we have every sympathy with disappointed runners, but we are also a little exasperated with some of the wilder theories that start proliferating on social media. Here are just some of them, and why they are wrong.

'You have a better/worse chance of a place if you buy the training top'

This, or variations on it, is an annual fixture in the 'ballot theory' runners. But look, this isn't even what happens. When you enter the ballot, you are given the option to donate your entry fee to charity. After the ballot is drawn, London Marathon then send people who have done this a training top, to say thank you. So, you don't actually 'buy' a top – you get it as a thank you gift.

If you do donate your fee, your chances of getting a marathon place actually DO go up a small amount, because you are then entered into the Lucky 2,000 Extra Ballot, which is a prize draw for a pair of places for another of the Abbott World Marathon Majors. And if you don't win anything? Well, then you've done a nice thing and donated towards one of the many projects that the London Marathon Foundation support, from play areas for children to inclusive cycling facilities. Well done you.

'They got rid of the 'five strikes and you get a guaranteed place' to make more money/ annoy me specifically/ let in more charity runners'

For some years, the London Marathon had a system where after five rejections, you got a guaranteed entry at the sixth attempt. Why did they stop this? There is no conspiracy, runners. What there is, is maths. Pesky old maths.

Just think for a second, this year over HALF A MILLION people entered the ballot – 578,374, to be precise. Some of them may have entered before, some may not. Some may try again next year, some may not. But let us just, purely theoretically, briefly imagine that the same – and only the same – half a million people entered this year's ballot for the first time and will now do it five years in a row, with no one new putting their hat in the ring. Cross out the lucky ones, let's call it 20,000 ballot place winners in each of those years. So in five years, you've got to give approximately 478,374 people a guaranteed entry in your race? Cripes. And you thought it was busy now.

'It's all about charity now, it's not a real runners race'

Well, tell that to the 3,000 runners (not including the elite field) who broke three hours in 2023's race. Or – to pull another random stat – the 400 women who got a Championship start qualifying time (sub 3:14) for next year's race. Or the runners who got one of the 6,000 Good for Age places. Or perhaps to the England Athletics-affiliated running clubs, who get guaranteed places – the number depending on their own membership figures – to give out as they see fit.

Is it the biggest fundraising event in the world? Yes it is, and we should be proud of that. That is what makes it special and gives it a totally unique atmosphere. But is it also a race for club or 'serious' runners? Yes, it is. Though of course, anyone who doesn't think so can enter any number of other marathons, if they so wish.

'Literally no one I know got in'

I'm sorry to inform you that you – yes, YOU – are the Typhoid Mary of the London Marathon ballot. Everyone people who got a place.

Alternatively, again, can we do a little maths? There's 578,374 entries for about 20,000 places. That's not great odds – 3.5% in your favour (rounded up) and 96.5% against. So it's really not that surprising that you don't know loads of people who got a place.

'It's not random'

Yes, it is. Personally, I like to imagine there's a very tired person at London Marathon HQ watching random balls get spat out of a machine like the National Lottery numbers. The method of the draw is likley a little more more sophisticated but, even so, is still totally random.

Is there a better way to do it? Answers on a postcard, though a system that is better than a random draw for me is hard to imagine. And ultimately, it's only a race, of which there are many, many others you don't even have to enter a ballot for - why not check out some of our suggestions? Running the London Marathon isn't a right, it's a privilege, and some may be luckier than others in scoring places, perhaps even more than once. But then, that's the very definition of luck.